Washington’s political mood just months before the November general election is a study in contrasts.

On one hand, voters are angry over a shaky economy and high fuel prices. On the other hand, legions of young voters, many inspired by a candidate named Obama, are responding to calls for change and becoming involved in the political process in numbers and intensity never before seen in their demographic range.

As in 2006, the Republican brand is in trouble thanks to the unpopular Bush administration, the economy, the Iraq War and the aftermath of a GOP-dominated Congress that lost power in 2006 amid a cloud of scandals. Despite these disadvantages, the GOP’s presidential and Washington state gubernatorial candidates are both highly competitive.

All in all, this is not your average election.

A desire for change
According to Bob Moore, president of Moore Information, a Portland, Ore. firm that has polled extensively in the Washington state electoral environment, up to 75 percent of respondents nationwide believe the country is going in the wrong direction.

“In general, people think the country is off on the wrong track for two major reasons,” said Moore. “One is that we’re over in Iraq and most people don’t like that. Two, they’re nervous over the economy.”

Thus, there is a responsive environment for Barack Obama’s calls for change in the presidential election.

“I believe it’s all over,” said Cathy Allen, a Democratic Party political strategist and a commentator on Seattle’s KING 5 TV. “For the first time in history, I see a huge turnout of young people. I see a kind of energy out there that time is not dissipating. Every time there is an attack on Obama, I see the cementing of lots of young voters who say it’s not fair.”
Allen believes Obama will win Washington by double digits as part of a national victory where states with generally Republican presidential voting histories, like Colorado, cast their electoral votes for Obama. 

“It looks to me that it’s likely Obama could win by 103 Electoral College votes,” said Allen.
Allen’s fellow KING 5 commentator and sparring partner, Chris Vance, a former state Republican party chair and state legislator, takes a very different view.

“If the Democrats had nominated just a generic, nondescript Democrat — somebody like Mark Warner or Evan Bayh — and not Barack Obama, they’d probably be 10 points ahead right now,” said Vance. “As much as everybody loves to love Barack Obama, he’s got big problems. For one, older women, who are typically solid Democrats, do not like him.”

In the meantime, the Republicans chose the one presidential candidate who could be competitive in an environment that it is otherwise toxic for the GOP, according to Vance.

“If the Republicans had nominated anybody else, this race would be over already,” said Vance. “A generic Republican could never win this year, but John McCain is different enough from your stereotypical Republican and different enough from President Bush that Obama and McCain are tied in the Gallup poll.”

Vance believes McCain’s strengths and Obama’s weaknesses will lead to the Republicans remaining in the White House for the next four years.

“I’ve predicted publicly, multiple times, that the Democrats are going to do very well up and down the ticket,” said Vance. “They’re going to gain seats in Congress and I think they’re likely to hold everything they’ve got in Olympia, but because of the specifics of the candidates, I think John McCain wins.”

“I don’t think it’s over yet,” Moore said. “Obama is certainly the favorite at this point, but I think there’s a lot of water yet to run under the bridge. McCain’s going to have to make it work. He’s going to have to come out and explain to people why he should be the president. He’s fighting the bad news from the Bush administration, general antipathy toward Republicans and a desire for change.”

Gregoire vs. Rossi:  The Sequel
In the state of Washington, however, a different picture emerges. In contrast to the nationwide voters, Washingtonians are split on the question of whether the state is moving in the right or wrong direction, according to Moore.

As a result, the much-anticipated rematch between Gov. Chris Gregoire and Dino Rossi is likely to be close — again.

“In Washington, there’s a different situation than nationally because the Democrats are in control in Olympia,” Moore said. “Voters may think that the way to fix Washington is to vote Republican.”

Although Washington tends to vote for Democrats more often than Republicans, its voters are extremely independent-minded.

“In Washington state, the independent voters are practically the majority party,” said Erin McCallum of Enterprise Washington. “We have seen party identification and party loyalty decrease for both of the political parties. Voters in this state don’t like labels. They want to vote for individuals — Democrat and Republican — who are going to deliver results.”

A large portion of Washington’s electorate is willing to consider appeals from both parties if their candidates will tackle their issues of concern, including the economy and — especially in the Puget Sound region — transportation.

“Suburban voters, especially young suburban voters, are the key to winning in Washington state,” said Vance. “Seattle is going to go massively for the Democrats and eastern Washington will go massively for the Republicans. Winning areas like south Snohomish and east Pierce counties, where the voters are very socially tolerant but very fiscally conservative, is the key. Dino Rossi won those areas last time, but just by a little bit — not quite enough.”

Vance believes the Democrats have dominated Washington state politics by demonizing Republican candidates, even though the voters often have more conservative instincts as seen in the success of many of Tim Eyman’s anti-tax initiatives.

“The Democrats have so-far been unable to demonize Dino Rossi and turn him into a scary cartoon character,” said Vance. “The main thing he has to do is to not let them
do that.”

Meanwhile, Gov. Gregoire is running against her old rival this time with the advantages of incumbency.

“Gov. Gregoire needs to get the record of her accomplishments out there instead of focusing on what the budget deficit is likely to be,” said Allen. “She needs to stress that her administration, for the first time in our history, did something to try to boost academic rates. As opposed to what she spent, it should be what she has spent it on and what that gives every taxpayer here in this state.”

Most observers expect the Gregoire-Rossi race to be close, although Allen is confident that King County has made enough changes to its election system that the verification problems that bedeviled the 2004 vote count are much less likely to recur. Nevertheless, this race still stands a good chance of being an election night nail-biter.

“On election night, the key is to watch King County,” Vance said. “Dino is not going to win King County, but 40 percent is the magic number. If Rossi had gotten 41 percent in King County, in 2004, that would have been a wide enough margin that he would have won. If by 11 o’clock at night, Rossi’s at 42 percent to 43 percent in King County, he’s probably the next governor. If he’s got 38 percent, he’s probably not.”
Vance believes Rossi is on track to win the election.

“The polls are all showing the same thing: The governor’s race is almost dead even with Gregoire ahead by a point or two,” Vance said. “If the election were held today, she probably loses because there’s an iron law of polling that perhaps 80 percent of undecided voters break against the incumbent. Gregoire’s at 45 percent to 46 percent, and whenever an incumbent is below 50 percent on election day, they lose. Combine that with the latest Strategic Vision poll on right direction/wrong track, which is up to 65 percent wrong track, Gregoire is in big, big trouble.”

Down ticket
Overwhelmingly, most observers expect little change in the composition of the Washington State Legislature.

“I see no change,” said Moore. “We’ve got these equal numbers of people who say right direction, wrong track. Also, the Republicans are not doing as well as they’ve done in the past in fielding a really good group of candidates.”

Likewise, the statewide races, in large part, are also not likely to produce surprises although Republican incumbents, like Attorney General Rob McKenna and Commissioner of Public Lands Doug Sutherland, will be running harder than usual against anti-GOP sentiments. Primary results suggest challenger Randy Dorn may give incumbent Superintendent of Public Instruction Terry Bergeson a strong run fueled by controversy related to the Washington Assessment of Student Learning test.

Vance believes Tim Eyman’s latest transportation measure Initiative 985 is too complicated to capture a lot of interest, as is the home health care unionization initiative from the Service Employees International Union. Allen, however, believes the main factor for many voters is money.

“People definitely distrust giving the government more money,” Allen said. “The Eyman initiative and the Death With Dignity Initiative 1000 look like they won’t cost any money, and both of them are written in ways that make sense to the public, so I think they both pass. When it comes to anything that’s got money attached, like the Sound Transit measure in the Puget Sound region, voters will be less enthusiastic. To combat that reluctance, I think there will be more TV spots about Sound Transit on Seattle TV than there will be about Obama and McCain.”
Other than the gubernatorial race, the Washington state contest certain to be the most watched is the rematch in the 8th Congressional District between incumbent Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Auburn, versus Democratic challenger Darcy Burner. The race in a competitive district in eastern Pierce and King counties has attracted attention and money from around the country.
There are, however, good reasons to believe Reichert will survive this challenge.

“Darcy Burner is a one dimensional candidate — 100 percent liberal, motivated by the Iraq War and anti-Bush — an attitude that peaked with the public two to three years ago,” said Vance. “If she could not beat Dave Reichert in 2006, why is she going to beat him now?”
Vance believes Reichert has also helped himself by positioning himself as a moderate who is willing to break with President Bush on many issues, including the environment.
However, how the election turns out means big stakes for the business community, both statewide and nationally.

On the state level, Vance thinks a Gregoire victory is unlikely to lead to a repeat of 1993 when Democrats, spurred on by a big majority, pushed through an agenda that was highly hostile to the business community. Instead, they have taken an incremental approach on issues like climate change, health care and paid family leave.

“The Democrats have tried very hard to maintain this balancing act between satisfying their liberal constituency groups and not scaring suburban voters,” said Vance. “But every session they take another step down the path where a lot of anti-business forces want to take the state.”
“The next few years are going to be a very challenging time for American business,” said Charlie Cook, a nationally renowned political analyst. “You have a Democratic Congress with majorities that are going to get bigger after this election. You’ve got a fifty-fifty chance of the Republicans losing the presidency, but even McCain would be much more in favor of regulation.

“Business is not going to win all the fights, but what it has to do is put itself in the best negotiating position and be part of the solution so it’s at the table when decisions
are made.”


SIDEBAR:

Obama and McCain weigh in on health care

Barack Obama’s health care plan is an incremental approach that keeps the employer-based health insurance system in place while building generously defined benefit-driven health insurance plans where employers continue to pay ever-increasing costs. Employers would pay heavily under the Obama plan in the drive to provide “universal coverage.”

Under Obama’s proposals, all employers would fund a “pay-or-play” mandate, imposing a tax on those who do not provide health insurance for their employees. If the plan follows guidelines similar to those produced by one private foundation, there would likely be a payroll tax of 7 percent of earnings up to $1.25 per hour on employers who fail to pay at least 75 percent of the premium for a minimum package of benefits.
If this provision were implemented today, it would affect:

• 40 percent of small employers who do not offer coverage.

• 30 million individuals in families with workforce participation, but without health insurance.

• Millions of Medicaid enrollees, also with a workforce connection.

• Employers paying less than 75 percent and those with insufficiently generous plans.

In addition to the pay-or-play mandate, there would be an income-related subsidy for the uninsured to purchase coverage from a National Health Insurance Exchange. Since Obama’s plan has no individual mandate and the exchange would be community-rated and guaranteed issue with a minimum benefits package, but no maximum benefits cap.
Health care plans would be free set their own premiums, but would be required to charge all customers the same rate. As a result, the plans would profit from healthy enrollees, but lose from less healthy customers.

Other features of the plan include a pay-or-play mandate for parents to insure their children, and expanding enrollment in Medicaid and the State Children’s Health Insurance Program, perhaps by as much as 12 million people.

John McCain’s health care focus is on reducing the costs that make health insurance so expensive that it is often out of the reach of individuals, employers, and even the government, which remains responsible for providing benefits for seniors and a safety net for the poor.
In short, McCain would shift health insurance responsibility from the employer to the individual and provide a structure that enables individuals to build their own health insurance security.
Republicans are frequently called “conservative,” but McCain’s plan is anything but conservative, cautious or deferential to the status quo. Shifting responsibility from the employer to the individual is a sea change in the way the U.S. health care system operates, although some elements of this approach already exist on a more limited basis, including Health Savings Accounts. McCain’s health care plan includes:

• Reducing costs by encouraging states to remove many health insurance benefit mandates.

• Reducing costs for insurers by creating one national health insurance policy form instead of 50 separate state forms.

• Creating an optional federal health insurance regime and encouraging the individual health care market by allowing existing state products to complete with the national program.

• Using competition to improve the quality of health insurance with greater variety to match needs, lower prices and portability.

• Allowing families to purchase their health insurance nationwide, across state lines.

• Providing the option of employer-based coverage, but giving every family a directly refundable tax credit of $2,500 for individuals and $5,000 for families to offset the cost of insurance should they decide to purchase their own insurance.

• Allowing those obtaining innovative insurance that costs less than the credit to deposit the remainder in expanded Health Savings Accounts.

• Greater insurance portability for people who change jobs.

• Encouraging and expanding the benefits of Health Savings Accounts.