|
 |
|
|
|
Election 2006: Reading the tea leaves |
|
|
|
Written On: September/October 2006 |
|
|
|
Written By: by Paul Schlienz |
|
|
|
Washington’s general election is just around the corner, but if you eavesdrop on conversations anywhere people gather, it is unlikely you’ll hear any political discussions.
"The state is not really engaged in politics," noted GOP political consultant Randy Pepple. "This is a boring election season except for the U.S. Senate race. It’s not like 2004, where there were races all over the state that were attracting lots of media, volunteers and party attention."
Ironically, for an election that has yet to connect with the public, this is not an insignificant contest. This election will decide the fate of three important state initiatives, determine the composition of the 2007-2008 state Legislature, elect nine members of the U.S. House of Representatives, and choose a U.S. senator — helping to determine which party will control Congress. Citizens ignore an election with such stakes at their own peril.
The three initiatives on the November ballot will include I- 920, which would repeal the state’s estate tax; I-933, which would force government agencies to compensate landowners for their properties’ loss of value due to land use restrictions; and I-937, which would place energy portfolio mandates on Northwest utilities.
Pepple believes the presence of I-920 on the ballot will lead to tax and budgetary issues — especially in relation to education funding — becoming prominent factors in the state legislative races.
"The teachers’ union has made it a top priority to defeat the estate tax initiative," Pepple said. "There is also significant funding on the pro side of repealing the estate tax."
Although the focus on tax and fiscal issues could serve to draw attention to recent tax increases by the Democrat-controlled state government, most observers are not expecting either house of the Legislature to switch from Democrat to Republican control.
Denny Heck, a former state legislator, chief of staff for Gov. Booth Gardner, founder of TVW, and a recognized authority on state politics, also sees the Democrats retaining control of the Legislature. Nevertheless, he cautions Democrats against overconfidence in their contests with Republicans, whom he believes are often stronger finishers than Democrats during the campaign season.
"[Democrats] need to earn every vote," Heck recently stated on AWB’s Washington Business Weekly radio program. "My advice to Democrats is 'Don’t get complacent ... just because trends look good for you this year.'"
Unlike the state, where Democrats control the governorship and both houses of the Legislature, the federal government is in Republican hands. Whether the GOP’s trifecta of control over both houses of Congress in addition to the White House will survive the 2006 mid-term election is one of the most hotly debated political topics of the day. Most observers are not expecting changes in Washington’s U.S. House delegation.
The House race that has received the most attention this year is the re-election bid by first-term U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Auburn. Democrats believe Reichert may be beatable because his district — which includes much of eastern King County — provided more votes for John Kerry than George Bush in 2004 and has been trending Democrat in legislative races.
The Democrats’ candidate, Darcy Burner, a former Microsoft program manager and political newcomer, has attracted national attention and, most importantly, funding. Burner still faces an uphill battle against Reichert.
"[Burner has] a long way to go to be a top tier challenger," political analyst Stuart Rothenberg observed at AWB’s 2006 spring board meeting in Spokane. While still giving the edge to Reichert, Rothenberg still believes he could become vulnerable if there is a strong enough trend toward the Democrats.
Cantwell vs. McGavick
By far the most intriguing race in Washington is the U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Democrat Sen. Maria Cantwell and her GOP challenger, former Safeco CEO Mike McGavick.
Well funded, telegenic, affable, and a good speaker, McGavick has been traveling the state, emphasizing issues such as the need to bring back civility to politics and promoting an ideal of getting beyond partisan bickering to work on issues of importance to Washington.
Many of McGavick’s positions, especially on Iraq, are similar to those of President Bush, whose popularity remains low in Washington and throughout the nation. McGavick, however, has so far avoided being too closely tied to Bush.
Cantwell, the state’s junior senator since 2001, has many advantages. As an incumbent, she has ample funding. In addition, she is running as a Democrat in a state that typically elects more Democrats than Republicans in a year when President Bush and the Republican Congress are losing popularity. Despite this, Cantwell is no shoo-in for reelection.
"[Cantwell] seems smart and professional enough, but she doesn’t really connect that well," Rothenberg observed. Although Rothenberg is not convinced that Cantwell will be toppled, her cool demeanor could spell problems for her against a candidate as likeable as McGavick.
Weekly Standard editor Fred Barnes, speaking to the Washington Research Council, observed that Democrats have problems reaching out to swing voters because they are either perceived as being too liberal or not likeable enough.
"The most likeable candidate usually wins," said Barnes.
In addition to her problems with McGavick, Cantwell is facing a rebellion within her own party’s ranks over her support for the Iraq War. Although she has moderated her stance somewhat in recent months, her supporters fear that if enough anti-war Democrats vote for Aaron Dixon — an uncompromisingly anti-war Green Party candidate — in November, the election could swing to McGavick in a close race.
No one is counting out McGavick, but his goal of toppling an incumbent Democrat senator is far from assured in a year when many trends are working against Republicans.
"McGavick is a very good candidate, but the wind is pretty strong in his face," Rothenberg said.
A Referendum on Bush
Although the Northwest is a unique region that marches to its own drum on many political issues, Washington voters appear to be in tune with much of the national mood, even if many of them are not truly engaged.
With high gas prices and an unpopular war, President Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress are laboring under low approval ratings. While there does appear to be a trend in favor of Democrats, it remains to be seen if they will be able to reclaim the U.S. House — much less the Senate — where Republicans have a stronger hold on power.
"It’s a referendum on Bush, and Iraq is the biggest concern," Rothenberg said. "We’re currently on a glide path for Democrats to make significant gains in congressional elections, possibly retaking the House."
Rothenberg believes this is a pivotal year, much like 1994, when voters want change. In such an environment, incumbents in swing districts become vulnerable.
These trends have already led to the primary defeat of Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., who was closely identified with the Iraq War and is now running as an independent.
It would be foolish to count the GOP out in November. While Democrats could take the 15 necessary seats to control the House, circumstances could also switch to favor the Republicans. The recent aviation bombing plot uncovered in Britain may serve to remind voters of one of the Republican Party’s strongest issues — its hardline stance on terrorism. If the situation in Iraq improves before November, this, too, could help the GOP.
Such sudden turnarounds in electoral fortune have historical precedents.
"In 1864, Lincoln looked like he was headed to defeat," Barnes observed. "Then Sherman took Atlanta and changed everything."
Heck, who believes there is a trend toward the Democrats — though not as pronounced as the 1994 GOP landslide — cautions against jumping to conclusions too soon.
"The voters haven’t spoken yet," Heck emphasized. "There’s a lot of real estate to be covered between now and the November election, so we’ll find out together then."
|
|
|
|
