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Points of View: Predicting election is risky business |
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Written On: July/August 2007 |
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Written By: by Tim Hibbitts |
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Tim Hibbitts is a partner in Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc., an independent, non-partisan firm specializing in opinion research and strategic communication in Portland, Ore.
Trying to predict the outcome or the broad strategic and thematic aspects of an election that is still 17 months away is hazardous. So, with the proviso that a week is a long time in politics, here is what this observer sees in gazing into the crystal ball for next year. Ask me again in six months and you might get a different answer.
First, the Republicans are currently in difficult straits as we look toward the 2008 elections. It is tough for a party to maintain the White House for a third successive term under good circumstances, but the Republicans as of today are facing daunting odds next year. The president’s approval rating has been flat-lined at 35 percent for months. He has virtually no support among Democrats and is at about 25 percent among independents.
Even among Republicans there are signs of slippage, as Bush’s rating among members of his own party is now in the 75-percent range. Some Republicans think that, since Bush won’t be on the ballot next year, he won’t have much impact on the outcome. This strikes me as whistling past the graveyard, politically speaking. It may be true that Republicans aren’t too likely to mention George W. Bush’s name during the next election cycle.
Rest assured that Democrats will. The question is whether President Bush has so damaged the Republican brand that the party will suffer for years to come, much like the Republicans did in the post-depression presidential elections from 1936 to 1948.
Rejecting the 'In' party
As for the Democrats, they are in the fortunate position of watching Republicans flail about, without having to do much to benefit from it. Make no mistake, last year’s election victories for the Democrats were not an endorsement of donkeys. Rather, it was a rejection of the "in" party—in this case the Republicans.
In a two-party system, when voters are angry at the governing party they have only one outlet—to vote for the party not in power. More than any other reason, that is why Democrats did well in 2006. While the Democrats have the opportunity to turn a "rejection election" that benefited them into something positive, there is not much evidence yet that they have done so. The latest polling data suggests that the Democrat-controlled Congress has a job approval rating that is not much better than President Bush’s.
Thus, the Democrats start out with a generic advantage for their presidential candidates next year. However, one thing that has been interesting to watch in the polls in the last few months is that the Democratic "generic" advantage has not really translated into a clear lead in the presidential matchups.
No clear lead
Republicans John McCain and Rudy Giuliani have been very competitive, having actually led the big three Democrats in the national polls during the early months of 2007. There are probably different reasons for this. In the case of Barack Obama and John Edwards, there may be a bit of a stature gap with the two Republicans. In the case of Hillary Clinton, she evokes passionate feelings on both sides, and it seems clear—given the high negatives that she gets in national polls—that some voters who are inclined to vote Democratic for president next year don’t want to vote for Sen. Clinton, at least not right now.
There is an X-factor in this election, and that is the possibility of a serious independent candidacy. Every few elections it seems that national conditions open the door for an independent. Many of those conditions are extant now—dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, unhappiness with "politics as usual"—and while the odds against a serious independent run are still high, it is something to keep in mind as we approach 2008.
Gregoire looks strong
Lastly, as it pertains to Washington state, Republicans face long odds to regain the governorship next year. Despite the controversial beginning to her term, Gov. Gregoire must be considered a clear favorite for a second term. The economy is better than it was when she took office, the state’s Republicans are shell-shocked and a bit dispirited after the disaster of 2006, and Washington is a state that leans blue and is getting bluer with Democrats winning 25 of the last 31 partisan statewide races. Further, it seems clear that the controversial outcome of her 2004 race has been pretty much forgotten by voters, with the exception of strongly partisan Republicans. Those who thought that Gregoire’s governorship would be defined by the way in which she came to office will have to rethink how they might beat her in 2008.
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