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Home / Washington Business - July/August 2007 / Points of View: All bets are off in 2008 elections |
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Points of View: All bets are off in 2008 elections |
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Written On: July/August 2007 |
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Written By: by Bob Moore |
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Bob Moore is president of Moore Information Inc., a full-service public opinion research firm with offices in Portland and the Washington, D.C. area.
Republican losses in 2006, along with President Bush’s low approval rating, have some Democrats drooling for next year’s election and many pundits writing off the GOP. But that’s not what the numbers say, not today at least.
There is no question the 2006 elections were bad for Republicans. They lost control of the U.S. Senate and House and suffered major losses across the country in governors’ races and state legislatures. In Washington state, Democratic voter turnout was 10 percent higher than Republicans, the biggest advantage for Democrats since exit polling started.
In the state Senate, Democrats won their biggest majority since 1959. In the state House, their margin is the widest since 1993. The Democratic gains were due to an electorate that was sending a message primarily about its displeasure with the way the Iraq war was being conducted, but also the way business was being conducted in Washington, D.C.
After 12 years of congressional control and six years in the White House, Republicans were perceived to be the problem rather than the solution. Voters’ biggest complaint was with President Bush, whose approval rating hovered in the mid-30s.
Iraq War hurts Bush
Fast forward to June 2007. The president’s approval rating is now in the low 30s and there is no end in sight to the Iraq war. That means bad news for the GOP in 2008, right? Well now, 18 months is a long time. Remember, less than two years before George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton, Bush’s approval ratings were in the 80s. In September 1993, just 14 months before the GOP captured control of the U.S. Senate and House, voters believed the Democrats would do a better job than Republicans solving a host of problems, including reducing the budget deficit, keeping down the cost of health care, cutting waste in government and improving the economy. And, President Clinton had a positive approval rating.
Democrats do have a case for doing well in 2008. Voters are in a negative mood, primarily because we are still involved in the Iraq war. More than seven in 10 voters nationally believe the country is on the wrong track, the president’s approval rating is in the low 30s, and significant majorities now believe it was a mistake for the United States to get involved in Iraq and disapprove of how the administration is handling the war. To top it all off, a plurality of voters nationally now believe the economy is in bad shape and will get worse in the next year. In Washington state, the economy has improved in the past couple of years, and Gov. Gregoire’s approval ratings have improved with the economy.
Approval of Congress lower than Bush
But Republicans also have a case to make. First of all, George Bush won’t be on the ballot next year. In ballot tests between the major candidates, national polls show voters are divided between the GOP and Democrat candidates for president. Also important, the GOP does not control Congress now and job performance ratings of Congress are actually lower than those of President Bush.
In 2006, with Republicans in control of Congress, Democrats won because the voters were angry about what was going on in the country. Today, Democrats control Congress and will have to answer voters’ questions about their leadership.
There will be a change in the White House, and Democrats won’t be able to use George Bush as effectively as they have. Republicans may be able to pin voter complaints on Congress. Even more encouraging for the GOP is the following potential Electoral College scenario derived with current polling data in the 2008 presidential race.
Looking at the two current front-runners—Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton—if you give Giuliani the hard core "red state" electoral votes (183) as well as the votes in states where he leads in public polls outside the margin of error, he would get 291 electoral votes. And, that doesn’t even include some states that Bush won where there is no current polling data, or swing states that Kerry barely won where there is no polling data.
Finally, in Washington state, things could also be interesting in 2008. In the gubernatorial race an incumbent would be expected to have the advantage. Gov. Gregoire’s approval ratings are in the 50s, the economy has improved and Democrats had a big year in 2006. But even here, it is too early to take anything for granted. Our own recent polling shows a race between Gregoire and Dino Rossi in a statistical dead heat, despite the governor’s improved image.
Both potential candidates lead among their own partisans, but Rossi has a lead among independents. In addition, GOP voters will be motivated in 2008, as a majority of them still believe the election was stolen from Rossi. The outcome of this race may depend on voter perceptions of the economy, and nationally voters expect the economy to decline. At the state legislative level the economy and how legislators respond to it could have a major impact on races for the state Senate and House.
My advice: Don’t put a lot of money on either side yet.
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