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Home / Washington Business - January/February 2007 / Midterm Election: Blue Wave Overtakes Washington |
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Midterm Election: Blue Wave Overtakes Washington |
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Written On: January/February 2007 |
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Written By: by Paul Schlienz |
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November 2006 will be remembered for the wave of blue that swept across the length and breadth of the Unites States during the midterm election.
Nationally, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives was first to fall to the Democrats. A total of 31 seats changed parties, creating a 233-202 Democrat majority and making Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., the first woman to be elected speaker of the House. This was the Democrats’ largest seat gain since the post-Watergate election of 1974.
Later, the GOP lost six Senate seats after three extremely close races in Montana, Missouri and Virginia broke in favor of the Democrats. When the dust cleared, the GOP’s 54-45 Senate majority became a razor-thin 51-49 Democrat majority, including two independents who caucus with the Democrats, headed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.
This shift in the partisan control of Congress is not as spectacular as the GOP victories of 1994, which captured 54 House seats and eight Senate seats that were occupied by Democrats. Nonetheless, it is still a stunning victory.
What’s more, the national ascendancy of the Democrats is also reflected at the state level. Democrats now control 28 out of the 50 state governorships—the first time Democrats have held a national gubernatorial majority since 1994. Prior to the 2006 elections, Republicans held a majority of 28 governorships.
Democrats also made major gains in state legislatures from coast to coast. Prior to the election, Democrats held a bare majority of only 21 legislative seats nationwide. After the election, there is a whopping 600-member majority of Democratic legislators nationwide.
These national trends are also reflected in Washington state, with its Democratic governor and both houses of the Legislature under Democratic control. Olympia’s already-dominant Democrats became even stronger in 2006 with the Republicans’ loss of six seats in the House of Representatives, which created a 62-36 Democratic lead. At no point since the 1993-1994 biennium have the Democrats held more than 60 seats in the House—until now. Meanwhile, in the Senate, the Democrats expanded their three-seat lead to a 32-17 majority. The last time the Democrats held a Senate lead of more than 30 was in 1965.
National trends, local impact
What these Democratic victories mean—why they occurred, what they will mean in 2007 and in the longer term—is now being debated by political analysts of all partisan stripes.
"National trends certainly played a significant role in the 2006 election," commented Paul Berendt, former head of Washington’s state Democratic Party and currently with Strategies 360, a Seattle-based political consulting and lobbying firm. "Multiple issues of fiscal integrity and the management of government, the war in Iraq and a growing feeling that the Republicans were corrupt, certainly aided Democratic victories up and down the ticket."
One GOP observer, however, cautions against seeing national issues strongly at work in state legislative election outcomes.
"I don’t think there are a whole lot of voters out there who said 'I want to give the Democrats more power in the state of Washington by voting for State Representative X or State Representative Y,'" said Randy Pepple, a Republican consultant. "I do think the turnout was impacted by negative feelings towards Republicans nationally. Democrats were more likely to turn out to vote than Republicans. They were more motivated to vote. That has a trickle-down effect on state legislative races and other races on the ballot."
Now that the Democrats are even more firmly in charge of the state Legislature, what can we expect during the 2007-2008 biennium?
"In 2007, [legislators] will start out the session with close to $2 billion in surplus," AWB’s Vice President of Governmental Affairs Gary Chandler said. "They need to exercise fiscal restraint or the blue tide that has rolled in will have a rip-tide impact on our vibrant economy and the jobs it created. New taxes and fees should not be an option."
Chandler and others in the business community remember 1993, when voters had just elected a new governor and Democrats were firmly in control of the Legislature. That year, the state had a $1.5 billion dollar deficit and lawmakers significantly raised taxes on businesses—in addition to adding to workers’ compensation and health care costs.
The business community is hoping for legislation in 2007 that will create and maintain jobs, make health care affordable while preserving choice, and build a strong rainy day fund of 5 percent. Businesses, however, are concerned that the Democrats may feel emboldened by their enhanced majority to pursue policies like "pay-or-play" health care or burdensome family leave regulations.
The question remains: Could 2007 be another 1993?
"Given the size of the majorities in both the House and the Senate, I think you’ll see more union and environmental legislation," Pepple said. "The candidates those interests supported will be advancing that legislation. The business community will have to play a lot of defense."
Berendt, however, believes the Legislature’s Democratic majorities will proceed with caution.
"I think you’ll see the Democrats really sticking to the basics on issues like economic development, transportation, health care, education and working to increase efficiencies in government so that people will continue to have confidence in the conduct of the government and so that people will continue to have confidence that they’re getting their money’s worth out of their government," Berendt predicted.
A long-term majority?
What this election portends for Washington’s political future beyond 2007 is also up for debate. A stunning number of legislative districts—including some that were safe Republican territory until recently—have completely switched to all-Democratic legislative delegations. These districts include east King County’s 45th and 48th districts, south King County’s 47th District, and the Kitsap Peninsula’s 23rd and 26th districts. If history is a guide, these districts may be very difficult for the GOP to reclaim.
Longtime observers of Washington state politics can still remember when, as recently as the late 1970s, Republicans were being elected from some Seattle legislative districts. Over time, however, those districts’ demographics and party identification changed to overwhelmingly favor Democrats. As a result, it has been many years since a Republican has run competitively in any Seattle legislative district.
Berendt believes it would take another GOP wave, similar to what was seen in 1994, for these districts to return to their Republican roots.
"I think it’s going to be very difficult for the Republicans to come back in these legislative districts in an even-tempered year," Berendt stated.
Pepple, however, believes the Democrats’ continued large majorities in Olympia are far from certain whether they govern from the center or from the left.
"If the Democrats pass a whole bunch of anti-business legislation and raise taxes, you can easily see Republicans making a big a comeback in 2008," Pepple commented. "If the Democrats govern moderately and the special interests that supported them don’t get what they wanted, they may not have the fundraising advantage next time because those interests may sit out the election."
Chandler and the business community remain hopeful they will be able to work with Olympia’s expanded Democratic majority between now and 2008.
"If our lawmakers leave the state capital with money in the bank, having solved many of the threats to our economic and employment gains following one of the most prolonged recession in years, they will wash away the memories lingering from 1993," Chandler concluded.
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